Page 13 - Summer 2024

MAPPING GLOBAL

ROOFTOP GROWTH FOR

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OXFORD UNIVERSITY

AND URBAN PLANNING JOINS ZEBAI PROJECT

A novel machine learning framework The team’s work provides the first high-resolution The University of Oxford has joined the ZEBAI net-zero criteria.
developed by the International Institute for global estimate of rooftop area growth based on Project, a new initiative that aims to revolutionise
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is helping different socioeconomic pathway narratives and the way in which zero-emission buildings are Reference: ‘New Project will harness AI to transform how Zero-
to estimate global rooftop area growth from demonstrates how large geospatial datasets designed. Backed with 3.8 million Euros from emission Buildings are designed’, Engineering Designer, April-June
2020 to 2050 with the aim of assisting in the and machine learning can support sustainable the European Commission Horizon Programme, 2024, p.7
planning of sustainable energy systems, urban development and climate action. the project will establish demonstrator projects
development and climate change mitigation. in four countries that will test innovative
Lead Author Siddharth Joshi, states:
approaches to significantly reducing the carbon
Global rooftop area refers to the total gross footprint of buildings.
“The implications of this research for policy and
surface area of all the roofs on buildings around
the public are significant. Our dataset can aid
the world and is an important measurement
in more realistic planning of decentralised solar The ZEBAI Project is led by the Universidad
for such purposes as installing roof mounted
energy systems, thereby promoting sustainable Politecnica de Madrid and will bring together
solar panels, planning cities and studying
energy solutions. Estimating the potential of a consortium of 18 academic institutions
environmental impacts. Understanding the
rooftop solar technology in achieving climate from seven European countries. The
growth of it over the next thirty years should
policies, especially in emerging economies, Departments of Engineering
enable better planning for sustainable energy
can help these policies be more effective Science and Physics at the
systems, improve urban development and
and affordable, in line with the Sustainable University of Oxford will focus
reduce the impacts of buildings on climate
Development Goals for clean energy, sustainable on characterising and
change and biodiversity loss.
cities, climate action and life on land.” modelling how materials
The machine learning framework uses respond to temperature
big data from around 700 million building The International Institute for Applied Systems and mechanical forces,
footprints, global land cover, and global road Analysis is an international scientific institute with AI being used to select
and population information. The data covers that conducts research into the critical issues of locally sourced building
approximately 3.5 million small areas worldwide. global environmental, economic, technological materials that are suited to
and social change. It is funded by research specific environmental conditions.
Using the framework, the researchers estimated agencies in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe Studying the specific properties
that in 2020 the total rooftop area globally was and maintains an independent status. of building materials and how they
0.25 million square kilometres out of a total behave under the combined influence of
human-made built-up surface area of 1.46 Reference: Joshi, S., Zakeri, B., Mittal, S., Mastrucci, A., Holloway, P., Krey, different forces will reveal how they are likely
million square kilometres. Asia had the highest V., Ramprasad Shukla,P., O’Gallachoir, B., Glynn, J., ‘Global High- to be affected by changes in temperature and
with 0.12 million kilometres, followed by Europe resolution Growth Projections Dataset for Rooftop Area consistent loads or stresses.
with 0.047 million and North America with 0.039 with the shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2020 - 2050’, Scientific DOI:
million. It is predicted that by 2050 the global 10.1038/s41597-024-03378-X The analyses will be used to create a simulation
rooftop area will increase to between 0.3 and that can be incorporated into construction
0.38 million square kilometres, representing design platforms used by architects and
an increase of between 20 and 52 per cent. engineers. ZEBAI software will include a library of
Africa, with currently 0.02 million is expected properties of materials based on the work and
to experience the highest growth, possibly will be used to ensure that constructions meet
doubling.

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